Election 2024: Trump and Congressional Republicans Sweep into Power – RFK Jr.’s “MAHA” Agenda Concerning to Public Health Establishment
By Pete Evich, Vice President, Van Scoyoc Associates
Donald Trump made history on Nov. 5 as the first person to be elected president after being defeated since Grover Cleveland in the late 1800s. Trump also made history on two other counts: he is the oldest person, and the first convicted felon ever be elected president. The strength of Trump’s victory propelled a GOP majority take-over of the Senate, and was the key factor in Republicans narrowly maintaining control of the House.
Prior to Nov. 5, most DC election prognosticators withheld from making firm declarations about which presidential candidate was going to prevail. National polling showed an even race between Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris, and the candidates were deadlocked in the seven swing states. A definitive electoral outcome was well within reason, however, should a shift of a few polling points occur in one of the candidate’s direction. As we witnessed, such a shift—to the benefit of Trump—was in the making as he swept all seven key toss-up states.
That stated, what was surprising to the pundits was the breadth of Trump’s victory across so many demographics. He improved among nearly all types of voters compared with four years ago. Not only did Trump win all the “battle ground” states, but he also became the first GOP presidential candidate to win the popular vote in 20 years. He put up large wins in big states such as Texas and Florida and came surprisingly close to in blue states such as New Jersey, where Harris won by narrower margins than Biden did in 2020.
Congress
The Republicans gaining control of the Senate was a less stunning outcome of the election, as the numbers had been skewing slightly in their favor. The GOP needed to gain two seats for majority control of the upper chamber, and they are on track for a four-seat pick up. The Associated Press currently shows a 53–47 majority in the Senate for Republicans, which includes a victory by GOP Senatorial candidate Dave McCormick in Pennsylvania. However, at the time of the writing of this article, the other major outlets have yet to call the PA Senatorial race between McCormick and Democratic incumbent, Sen. Bob Casey. Casey has yet to concede, and a mandatory recount could occur in this race should the margin remain under 0.5%. Once the dust settles on this last uncalled Senate race, the GOP will either have a 53 to 47 seat or 52 to 48 seat majority control in the upper chamber in the next Congress (2025–2026).
On the other side of the Capitol, control of the House of Representatives will continue to narrowly remain with the GOP. However, at the time of the writing of this article, there are still seven House races that have not yet been called, so how slim the GOP’s majority will be in the lower chamber is still unknown. In any scenario, the Republicans will once again be in control of the House by a very small margin. Regardless, an election result where the GOP controlled the reins of power in both the Senate and House was beyond what most Congressional Republicans had expected.
Impact on FDA and Life Sciences Industry
What a Trump victory will mean for FDA is now an extraordinarily important question for the life sciences industry as the Agency regulates its new and existing products.
As has been highly reported, Robert F. Kennedy Jr., who Trump has deputized as a key advisor to his incoming Administration on its health policy agenda, has floated broad plans to “make America healthy again.” How RFK Jr. will accomplish his wide-ranging agenda—and how long of a leash Trump will allow him to have—is a major question. The public health establishment is concerned about the level to which RFK Jr. will be able to meddle with key government agencies, amplify vaccine hesitancy, and direct federal agency funding to favor his preferred views. Just prior to the election, Kennedy wrote the following on social media:
“FDA’s war on public health is about to end. This includes its aggressive suppression of psychedelics, peptides, stem cells, raw milk, hyperbaric therapies, chelating compounds, ivermectin, hydroxychloroquine, vitamins, clean foods, sunshine, exercise, nutraceuticals and anything else that advances human health and can’t be patented by Pharma. If you work for the FDA and are part of this corrupt system, I have two messages for you: 1. Preserve your records, and 2. Pack your bags.”
What formal role Kennedy will assume is still unknown at the time of the publication of this article, but reports are that he is not expected to be advanced by Trump for a cabinet level position, or one that requires confirmation by the U.S. Senate.
What has been reported by press outlets is that Kennedy attended a day of meetings at Trump’s Mar-A-Lago resort the day after the election to talk about the transition of power and potential candidates for health and scientific positions in the next administration. Two people familiar with the discussions say four names were floated by Kennedy's camp:
- Jay Bhattacharya, Director of Stanford’s Center on the Demography and Economics of Health and Aging;
- Joseph Ladapo, Florida’s Surgeon General;
- Marty Makary, Johns Hopkins Public Policy Researcher and Surgeon; and
- Casey Means, a chronic disease entrepreneur linked to the “Make America Healthy Again” movement.
Dr. Ladapo edited a controversial state-driven study about Covid-19 vaccines and the risks of cardiac deaths. Bhattacharya and Makary advocated against lockdowns and mask mandates for children, respectively, during the Covid pandemic. In the coming weeks and months, a clearer picture will emerge as to which Kennedy-backed candidates will be nominated for key cabinet and sub-cabinet positions in the Trump Administration.
RFK Jr’s influence on Trump’s health and nutrition agenda has excited the community of believers who espouse his views on these subjects, and conversely, has raised alarm bells within the public health institutional establishment—as well as corporate pharma and food conglomerates. Assuming Kennedy is able to help steer policy and influence high-level personnel appointments within those agencies of the federal government which oversee public health and nutrition policy, another yet-to-be answered question will be which parts of his agenda will he ultimately succeed in impacting in a tangible manner.
Some health law watchers believe that, regardless of Kennedy’s role with FDA, the Trump Administration is likely to face a difficult road to accomplish some of its goals. Currently, to justify significantly modifying or undoing certain policies requires adherence to the Agency’s long-established scientific guidelines and protocols. It is believed that the courts would react negatively to FDA reversing course on a policy issue not backed by what is viewed by many as sound scientific reasoning. In addition, many FDA policies and regulations are rooted in specific statutory authority, so Congress would also need to play a role in those areas. In such cases, it will likely prove difficult for Capitol Hill to rubber stamp what may be perceived as undue interference to undermine a body of work from the established scientific community.
What Does this Mean for Homeopathy?
While RFK Jr. has not specifically cited homeopathy in his public statements, as the homeopathic medicine category is often placed under the larger umbrella of natural-based remedies, it’s reasonable to contemplate what RFK Jr’s influence and role in the second Trump Administration could mean for the manufacturing and marketing of homeopathic drug products.
AAHP has prioritized the advancement of the HPCUS White Papers that address cGMP gaps for homeopathic drug products. To achieve any level of success in this endeavor, the coming years will require constructive engagement and openness from senior FDA officials and staff. AAHP will be working to have Congress weigh in on this topic to encourage FDA to partner with the homeopathic manufacturing community to resolve these long-standing cGMP challenges. Certainly, in the course of this engagement, it would be very helpful to have open and receptive ears from newly placed, high-level FDA personnel.
Moreover, will we see a Trump-led FDA apply a reasonable enforcement discretion approach toward homeopathic drug products? And, how might the Trump FDA appointees view the Agency’s homeopathic guidance, which was finalized two years ago this December?
Certainly, the RFK Jr. “factor” has brought a high level of attention, interest, and intrigue to how the second Trump Administration will approach certain policies impacting the drug and food sectors, and the personnel Trump will put in place to oversee these key federal health agencies.
This is just the beginning, as there will be more developments of interest to come as the new administration begins to take shape and specific priorities are formally rolled out. As these occur, we will be sure to keep the membership informed.
The Upcoming GOP Controlled Congress—What’s in Store?
In the January AAHP newsletter, look for my analysis of the changes that will be taking place in Congress as result of the election. The article will include an overview of those key figures who will be leading and serving on the key Congressional health care committees in the new session. The piece will also outline key health related legislation, which is expected to be prioritized, potential opportunities for the homeopathic drug sector, and federal advocacy activities which will be undertaken by AAHP’s leadership as new governance begins to settle in at the White House, on Capitol Hill, and at the top echelons of the federal agencies.